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Forecasting Recruitment of Estuarine Dependent Fish Along the US East Coast
ISSUE: Estuarine-dependent fish species are very important ecologically and economically along the southeast U.S. coast. The processes affecting the supply of these species to estuaries, as well as their survival in estuaries are critical components of the species life cycle. An improved understanding of these processes will lead to ecological forecasts of the population abundance of estuarine-dependent species.
APPROACH : Research includes examining larval transport mechanisms from shelf spawning areas to the vicinity of inlets, the specific mechanisms by which larvae enter estuarine habitats, the association between larval ingress to estuaries and juvenile abundance, and the effect of environmental variability on juvenile survival. These various approaches involve field and laboratory work as well as modeling studies. Current work includes a pink shrimp forecast based on winter temperatures. A similar model has been developed into a population model for Atlantic croaker. The link between pink shrimp and croaker abundance, winter climate and larger climatic processes is also being examined.
A
second area of research involves understanding the mechanisms by which
larvae enter estuarine nursery habitats. Field work has found that fish
larvae use a variety of physical transport mechanisms to enter estuaries
and the mechanisms used vary among species and among ontogenetic stages.
Based on an understanding of larval ingress processes, a model has been
developed that predicts larval ingress. 
Future
efforts will couple this model to models of menhaden population abundance.
OUTCOME: Through
an improved mechanistic understanding of the processes that effect the
survival of 
estuarine-dependent
species, ecological forecasts can be developed that predict the abundance
and distribution of species in the future. These forecasts, once validated,
will provide invaluable information to managers making decisions on the
basis of future resource availability.More
For more information contact Jon Hare at jon.hare@noaa.gov