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Long Term Climate Change
Long term climate change can lead to altered temperatures in coastal environments, increased incidence of droughts, floods, and storms, and rising sea levels. Ocean current paths can be altered and marine habitats can experience different environmental conditions.
CCFHR scientists are working to develop the ability to predict some of the changes we can expect as climate changes in the next decades. As part of our work over the past 100+ years, we have been able to characterize and understand the ecological functioning of many coastal habitats in the southeastern U.S. and elsewhere. This accrued knowledge should allow us to evaluate climate induced changes and perhaps predict those that will occur.
Dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) is a product of algal metabolism whose production leads to release of dimethyl sulfide to the atmosphere. This compound plays a critical role in cloud formation which influences the solar light flux and heating at the earth’s surface in turn. CCFHR researchers are investigating the effect of light flux and nutrients on the DMSP production of marine algae. This should aid in understanding the complicated feedback mechanisms of atmospheric and marine chemistry, algal physiology, and their possible linkages to global warming.
Sea level is rising along the southeastern U.S. coast. This will inundate low lying coastal areas, creating new shallow water habitats. It will also move existing habitats to greater depths with different tidal exposures and different risks of predation to their inhabitants as well as creating different patterns of wave exposure and potential for erosion. At CCFHR we are developing a capability to predict some of the changes that will accompany sea level rise, drawing on our understanding of the dependence of the shallow water communities on water depth, tidal inundation frequency, temperature fluctuations, and wave and current motion.
Offshore, special marine habitats such as those at Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary and the Charleston Bump and Gyre are especially dependent on the Gulf Stream current. If the patterns of its flow should shift as climate changes, we can expect changes to the composition and productivity of the benthic and pelagic communities there. We have characterized these communities and begun to develop an understanding of their dependencies on current flows. This should help managers in detecting the impacts of climate change on these marine resources. There is already evidence of a shift toward a more tropical fish community at a CCFHR study site off North Carolina that is paralleled by documented increases in bottom water temperature over the past decade.