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Retrospective Assessment and Ecoforecasting of Hurricane Effects in the Coastal Ocean
NCCOS studies environmental data from high accuracy satellite images to better understand how hurricanes change the coastal ocean and how these changes can impact marine habitats of Coastal Ecosystems of the southeastern USA.
Improved understanding from retrospective assessment, 1995 - present, can guide implementation of ecosystem monitoring and lead to the development and improvement of forecasts and interpretive tools to advance management and science policy actions on production and health of these habitats.
Since 1995 hurricane severity and frequency has been high. Nine major hurricanes battered the southeastern United States since 1995, when our retrospective data begins. In 2004 four major hurricanes including Hurricane Ivan (NOAA image) struck Florida within 6 weeks. Hurricane season is June through November.
image of the southeastern US
Surface water temperature, turbidity and chlorophyll abundance can be calculated from the output of sensors on board NOAA Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POES). Currently in orbit are morning and afternoon overpass satellites which provide global coverage of temperature four times daily but the spatial accuracy of temperature images produced in the past can have substantial spatial error relative to earth coordinates.
NCCOS has compiled and improved the spatial accuracy of over 6,000 images, 1995 and ongoing, to provide the accuracy
Hurricane winds and waves disrupt vertical structure of the coastal ocean by mixing surface with deeper water and suspending bottom sediments, but hurricanes also can impose stratified conditions following hurricane passage when increased freshwater runoff due to heavy rainfall enters the estuary. Mixing due to hurricanes and tropical storms is greatest near the center of a hurricane and in water that is contacted by wind that is strong or for long periods or over great distances.
Analysis of the remote images and information on exploited resources and production of coastal habitats can support development of ecoforecasts. Ecoforecasts will predict ecological effects of future hurricanes on coral reefs and other protected habitats, and potential changes in value and health of exploited habitats and resources.
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